The possibility of the Fed FOMC September Disappointing

Ahead of the trial on 16 to 17 September FOMC tomorrow, analysts tend to doubt the Fed will take advantage of the moment to raise interest rates. According to a note published earlier this week, the market appears to be more convinced the Fed interest rate hikes for the first time in nine years that will be conducted in December instead of September.
Nomura: FOMC Not Raise Interest Rates This Week
Nomura explicitly states that it does not expect the FOMC to raise interest rates this week, while projecting the increase in December. Further, Nomura expects the FOMC chairman Janet Yellen on post-FOMC conference will emphasize that the FOMC has come closer to a rate hike and that the committee still hopes to raise this year. Projection Nomura noted, Yellen will reaffirm what the next FOMC decision will depend on the outlook for the economy and inflation, and that the pace of interest rate hikes (after the first rise) will be slow and dependent on data.
However, Nomura believes that the market still has plenty of material to be observed, including the latest economic forecast, including the expectation that records the dot plot will FOMC interest rate short to medium term. They expect a significant decrease in the dot plot of tomorrow.

 DailyFX: Two Alternatives
In a different note, Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX cites the view of San Francisco Fed President John Williams, famous for centrist views similar to Yellen. Comments Williams previously mentioned that the Fed still wants to raise interest rates this year, and would probably do so, with one caveat: if the market risks subside. By looking at the market conditions after the comment was triggered, it appears that market risk has not abated and the less likely there will be improvement in the next few days ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Correspondingly, Vecchio says there are two possibilities for the decision of the Fed tomorrow. First, the Fed will raise interest but states will not increase again until the inflation target is reached. The forex market is continually ignoring predictions of future policy, so that an indication that the Fed will not do it again in the near future would be detrimental Dollars. The second being, the Fed will not raise interest rates at this meeting, while the current market has accounted in December as the time when the increase is most likely done (according to Fed funds futures contracts projections). Meeting that ended like this (like the possibility of a second), according to Vecchio will revive memories of the FOMC meeting in March where the US dollar has depreciated sharply after the Fed null and begin the process of normalizing policy.

 Kathy Lien: Dollar Long Positions Reduced
Meanwhile, Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management at the end of last week noted, "(if expected) based on the performance of the US economy alone, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as the unemployment rate has dropped to levels that are often associated with full employment. Salary is on the rise, Housing market steady, and the manufacturing and service sectors to expand. emergency condition that requires the application of a zero interest rate policy is no longer there, and hence the (then) it's time to raise interest rates. "
"However," according to Lien, "The Fed does not operate in an empty space and amid the volatility of stocks internationally, his dovish ECB, and bias dovish central banks other, it would be difficult for Janet Yellen to pull the trigger (rising interest rates ), 60 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg still expect the Fed to raise interest rates next week, but the Fed fund futures are only taking into account a 30% probability (rate) changes. It will be a difficult decision for the central bank, and therefore we expect investors will reducing their exposure on long dollar positions ahead of interest rate decisions on Thursday. In other words, the dollar will weaken at the beginning of the week. "
Furthermore, "Although the Fed to raise (interest rates), the rally will be short by followed by choppy trading as we expect the tightening to be accompanied by economic projections are lower. We only estimate one rate hike this week, and they (the Fed ) will try to ensure that the markets understand it. "

 Many Other Highlights
Meanwhile, Lien also warned that the market movers this week is not just the Fed. There are two other central banks will provide an important announcement this week, the Swiss Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. England will also be highlighted because there CPI data release, employment, and retail.
Bank of Japan, especially, many observed market because in recent times the porch Japanese officials have expressed their dissatisfaction with the performance of the economy and expect further monetary easing. Credit Agricole, in a note published by eFXnews, said that although the BoJ might expand further monetary stimulus, but there is little room for them to consider additional policy this week. Therefore, the Japanese Yen will still be driven by external factors such as global risk sentiment. According to them, "If it is assumed that the Fed will refrain from tightening monetary policy this week (then) we see room for the fall of the safe-haven demand will hurt the currency. However, it should be noted that the uncertainty over China will make the market remains unstable. "
While the data from the UK are expected to be disappointing. Morgan Stanlet mentioned that they are still bearish on the GBP, and will likely sell (GBP) against the USD and JPY. According to them, the data UK has begun to weaken, so that they remain bearish even though the Bank of England is not so concerned with market volatility recently.